How This Strange Season Shattered the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still