War-torn Burma Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".